The EU referendum and opinion polls: “It’s the economy, stupid”

To add to the uncertainty, it seems that 30% of people haven’t yet made up their mind which way to vote in the forthcoming EU referendum. Given that polling has shown that the result is on a knife-edge, it still leaves both sides with everything to play for. It is worth bearing in mind that research has shown that 80% of referendums tend to favour the status quo. People tend to vote against change. The two UK-wide referendums that we have had, in 1975 on whether to stay in the EU (sic), or in 2011 on the Alternative Vote attempt on electoral reform, both vote against change. In Scotland the status quo prevailed over the SNP campaign for independence by a 10% margin. Northern Ireland voted against union with the South in 1973. Similar patterns have been observed in other … Read more

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