Opinion polls and results predictions for UK elections

Prime Minister Johnson has called an early general election. You can follow what the opinion polls think might happen here.

Opinion polls

Poll of Polls: Here is a very useful “poll of polls” by a respected authority on voting, Prof. Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. For his poll of polls on Brexit opinion, if a referendum were held, click here.

YouGov have a strong reputation as a polling organisation and their Anthony Wells has a very useful commentary on recent polls here. He updates it every few days.

Recent polls: Here are some sites that give recent polling results:

Results predictions

This site, Electoral Calculus, has proved useful for predictions of results in terms of seats in Parliament based on recent polls. Click here.

Electoral Calculus is a modelling site that try to present an idea of how poll results translate into seats, not an easy task. In this game of polling, individual polls can vary a lot for various reasons, such as the ones stated above, and so one has to look around for devices that give us some idea of how this can all translate into the shape of a future Parliament. Electoral Calculus isn’t quick off the ground as it is updated once or twice a month but it gives an idea that a headline poll is quite different at times to what might actually happen.

2019 election

This is what Prof. Curtice had to say recently about what might happen. Click here.

Prof. Rob Ford is equally cautious, suggesting that if Johnson goes for a quick election, it would be a high-risk tactic. Click here.

The “Boris bounce”, the surge in support after a leadership election, is in full swing. Johnson has higher levels of approval as a PM, while Corbyn’s rating continues to be dreadful. The “bounce” is mainly at the expense of the Brexit Party and thus should be treated with caution, since the Tories are doing what might be expected, moving into the BP’s turf and soaking up their support.

Curtice recently suggested that the Brexit Party would harm the Tories more than Labour: “For every one voter who has moved from Labour to the Brexit Party, there are two that have moved from the Conservatives to the Brexit Party”.Read more.

On present projections, the Tories may or may not get a slender majority and it might end up in the same position as today, not enough to push through a No Deal Brexit.

Caveat with polls

These should be read with the usual caveats: that polls are snapshots at a particular point when the poll was taken, that the methodology may vary such as different samples and different means of contacting participants (online, phone or face to face), that pollsters can get quite varied results, that there’s often a margin of error to be borne in mind, and that today’s UK electorate has become very volatile and hard to predict. Moreover, with the current multi-party situation, with at least four parties posing as potential strong performers, votes in particular constituencies can be split three or more ways with the result that, in the British First Past the Post simple majority system, unexpected results can occur, ones that are different from what pollsters predict.

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