Brexit is partly about the UK leaving what is to a large extent a trading bloc. This is anticipated to have marked economic effects. While Brexiters argue that the economy will in time flourish under a de-regulated, free trade regime with free trade treaties negotiated with its trading partners, independent experts have been pointing out serious flaws in this position. Here are some commentaries in 2019.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research
The NIESR says that coming out of the EU’s single market and customs union would, over the next decade, leave each person in the UK £1,100 a year worse off, a 3.5% annual loss, £70bn a year for the UK, the equivalent of the entire output of Wales or 3% of GDP. Such a contraction in the economy would take Britain back to levels seen in 2014 when she was just starting to recover from the Recession. This would be due to lost trade and reduced migration. This is on top of £50bn lost since the 2016 referendum, which has cut 2.5% from national output compared with where it would have been if the Brexit vote had not happened. Read more.
Institute for Fiscal Studies
The IFS is a very respected independent body and its latest report continues to anticipate poor economic performance for the UK under different Brexit scenarios. Much would depend on the degree of the break with the EU.
Britain in a Changing Europe
This think tank, part of London University, estimated that the Johnson deal would reduce UK GDP per capita ten years after Brexit by between 2.3% and 7%, compared to remaining in the EU. Read more.